This wasn’t supposed to be the story. This weekend should have been about looking ahead, previewing a quarterfinal challenge, charting the next steps for the U.S. men’s national team as they advanced through Copa America 2024.
In a way, that’s still the story, but the situation has changed dramatically. After falling to Panama this past Thursday, a victory for the USMNT Monday night in Kansas City against Uruguay isn’t just an opportunity. It’s now a requirement. This third and final group stage match isn’t just a big game. It’s a defining one.
Yes, the USMNT’s Copa America is very much on the line, but so too are legacies and, very likely, jobs.
Just a year into the Gregg Berhalter Era 2.0, the USMNT finds itself at this crossroads. The match against Uruguay is do-or-die. A win would prove that this U.S. group has nerves of steel and the ability to beat a heavyweight when it matters. Anything less? Well, it will be nothing less than a catastrophic failure.
Berhalter’s coaching job is on the line, certainly, but this match is about so much more than that. For years, the USMNT has talked about wanting to be one of the best, a collective desire to be a team that can go head-to-head with anyone under the brightest lights. They wanted it … and they got it. This is the test they’ve craved. It’s no longer on the horizon. It’s right here, right now. Will it be a case of be careful what you ask for?
In some ways, that’s daunting, for sure. In other ways, this is could be exactly what this team needs at this moment. All the chips are on the table and there’s no pulling out now. Win, lose or draw, by the time Monday night turns into Tuesday morning, we’ll know exactly where this USMNT stands, and on our way to finding out the direction in which this USMNT is going next.
The situation right now
No matter how optimistic or pessimistic you are about this team, you mush acknowledge one simple fact: this isn’t going to be easy.
Following the USMNT’s disastrous 2-1 loss to Panama on Thursday – a match undone by an early red card and a late collapse – this team’s back is against the wall.
And technically speaking, their Copa America fate isn’t completely in their hands. Just winning may not be enough. It’s possible that the USMNT may not qualify out of a group that includes the tournament’s worst team, Bolivia, and a Panama team that has now defied all odds to become this group’s new kryptonite.
Help from Bolivia in Monday’s other game would be appreciated, but it can’t be expected. Panama is expected to take care of their business, giving themselves six points and a chance at the knockout round. Los Canaleros are expected to win, and it may all come down to how much they win by.
If Panama loses to or draw Bolivia, the U.S. will just need to match their result to advance. If Los Canaleros win, the U.S. would need a win of their own against Uruguay AND to maintain a two-goal advantage on Panama in the goal differential column.
Ultimately, all the U.S. can control is their own result. They know that the most pressing task Monday night is simple: beat Uruguay.
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The challenge at hand
For some teams in Uruguay’s situation, Monday night would be a great opportunity to rest some players ahead of the knockout stages. Through two games, they’ve amassed six points, bulldozing their way to a plus-seven goal differential largely thanks to a 5-0 mauling of Bolivia. This team has earned a rest, a chance to rotate before almost certainly leaving this group as winners.
This is Uruguay we’re talking about, though, and, more importantly, this is Marcelo Bielsa. If you think Bielsa is simply happy with being group winners, you don’t know much about El Loco.
Bielsa has earned that nickname for being one of the most thorough and obsessed minds this game has ever seen. The Argentinian-born coach demands much. Standards are always high and his relentless pursuit of maintaining those standards is legendary.
For Bielsa and Uruguay, this match is key, too. It may not be as vital as it is to the USMNT, but this is Uruguay’s chance to make a statement. Bielsa isn’t going to rest his players; he’s going to send them out there to show something to everyone watching.
“Without underestimating the strengths of the two teams we faced, those teams are not among the main competitors for the title,” Bielsa said after watching his side dismantle Bolivia. “Respectfully, I think that there are some very significant steps to be taken. Drawing conclusions today would be incorrect.
“Winning two games without facing the best teams in the competition does not allow us to define ourselves as one of the most important teams. That is a long way from being confirmed.”
Uruguay will see Monday as a chance to confirm themselves as a contender – which is unfortunate for a USMNT heading into this game with so much at stake.
Berhalter’s job on the line
To call this second phase of Berhalter’s tenure divisive is an understatement. From the moment he was re-hired, Berhalter has split opinions, to say the least. There is a section of American soccer fandom that believe this has been all wrong from the beginning, and that this Copa America is further proof of that very fact.
Should the U.S. get grouped by Panama, of all teams, would you be able to argue against them? If the U.S. becomes the first-ever Copa America host to not make it out of the group stage, what argument would there be for Berhalter to keep his job?
It would be a very tough argument to make. For years, this U.S. team has struggled to pick up meaningful non-CONCACAF wins, and this tournament would only add more evidence of that. That loss to Panama, a CONCACAF foe, would hurt most of all. That match should have been a stepping stone, not a trip-wire.
Berhalter doesn’t necessarily deserve all the blame. It was Ricardo Pepi, not Berhalter, who missed chance after chance in the Copa opener against Bolivia to stop the U.S. from running up the score. It was Tim Weah, not Berhalter, who earned what might just be a tournament-defining red card in the dumbest of ways against Panama, leaving the U.S. short-handed. It was the U.S. backline, not Berhalter, that folded late, giving up a draw that would have felt like a win.
Of course, Berhalter isn’t blameless. His decision to switch to a five-back against Panama invited pressure and – although you could see what he was trying to do – that pressure proved too much. That’s a coaching decision gone wrong. A tough one, but a decision nonetheless.
And in the end, the buck stops with the coach. in nearly every other soccer-playing country, the coach wouldn’t survive a debacle like this. This could prove to be a day of reckoning for Berhalter. If the worst does happen and the U.S. fails to advance, how could Berhalter possibly continue on?
Berhalter was asked about that possibility following the loss to Panama, and he answered succinctly: “That’s not for me to determine.”
No one on this team wants it to come to that. The players have long backed Berhalter, and it was their input that at least partially helped him reclaim the job in the first place. Yet if the U.S. does fail to qualify, it’s hard to imagine how those in charge could justify keeping him, regardless of the players’ sincere support.
Legacies at stake
This isn’t just about Berhalter, although the pitchforks will come out for him should the worst happen for the USMNT. This is also about this group of players, a team that has been so determined to achieve more than their predecessors.
So far, they haven’t realized that ambition, and this summer would be a dark mark on each of their resumes. It’s nothing that a strong run in the 2026 World Cup wouldn’t fix, of course, but it’s safe to say the vibes wouldn’t necessarily be very high heading into that tournament if the U.S. is embarrassed at the Copa on home soil.
Fact is, this USMNT group, for all its individual talent, has not proven to be a great team. Each of these players is supremely skilled, with so many playing at top clubs abroad. As a team, though, they have yet to truly match the hype. Major tournaments are where teams write their legacies – and throwing this one away would be damaging to a group that is just entering its prime.
Right now, the external pressure is intense. There are believers that want to see this team prove it can take down high-caliber teams such as Uruguay. There are doubters poised to say “I told you so” if it all goes wrong. And there are casual fans who will wake up Tuesday morning and form an opinion of this team either way – not necessarily an educated opinion, but a point of view, nonetheless. Everyone is watching and, in the end, everyone will have thoughts on everything that happens.
For the U.S. to seize control of the narrative, they’ll also have to seize control of their destiny. Should they fail, they will inevitably shoulder the blame while taking a mighty step backward in their quest to prove that this generation is the one to lead American soccer to new heights, on and off the field.
Looking ahead
We’re just two years away from a World Cup in the United States, Mexico and Canada. A week ago, we had a pretty good grasp of what those next two years would look like. Now? We really can’t know until the dust settles on this Copa America run.
Could U.S. Soccer end up spending the next few weeks searching for a new coach? It’s entirely possible. The plan has always been for Berhalter to lead this group in 2026, but that approach could be altered dramatically if this Copa comes to a premature end. U.S. Soccer is certainly hoping that it doesn’t come to that.
If it does, though, what will these next few years look like? What type of coach will come in? What type of style and tactics would a new coach bring to the table? With just a two-year runway, in which direction will this program head on the road to 2026?
Those are questions for next week – or then again, perhaps for never at all. Berhalter and the USMNT have a chance to answer those questions before they’re even asked by doing one simple thing: beating Uruguay. There’s no mystery about the task at hand and, in some ways, that makes this all a little bit easier.
Everything is on the line and it comes down to one game. This is the test this USMNT wanted. Let’s see if they can answer the bell.
