Italy are the weakest defending champions since Greece! Why nobody is tipping Luciano Spalletti’s side to win Euro 2024

The Azzurri have endured three years of turmoil since their thrilling triumph at Wembley, and arrive in Germany without several key men

Luciano Spalletti knows that Italy are not yet on the same level as Euro 2024 rivals England, France, Germany, Croatia, Spain and Portugal. He believes that they can be, though. There are “no d*ckheads” in his squad, he says, only players that are so committed to the cause that they’re even willing to give up playing PlayStation for a month!

Consequently, Spalletti is adamant that he has a panel of players with not only the talent but the right attitude to emulate Italy’s shock tournament triumph at Wembley just three years ago. “Even the Azzurri under [Roberto] Mancini in 2021 were not the strongest on paper,” the coach has argued. “Then, they became a special team.”

However, while Italy are once again arriving at a second successive European Championship having failed to qualify for the preceding World Cup, the similarities between Mancini’s men and Spalletti’s side end there.

Italy were in rude health ahead of the last Euros. This time around, they’re in utter disarray after three years of turmoil. As a result, most fans aren’t dreaming about winning the tournament; they’re fearing a first-round exit. Because not since Greece in 2008 have we seen a reigning European champion turn up to defend their title in such poor condition.

Jorginho Italy Switzerland WC Qualifiers

Euros glory to World Cup woe

After the shock and horror of missing out on a first World Cup since 1958, Italy enjoyed a spectacular revival under Roberto Mancini that culminated in a glorious – and fully deserved – victory over England in the final of Euro 2020. The Azzurri’s triumph was undeniably a surprise, they way they played even more so, with Italy confounding stereotypes by playing a dynamic and offensive brand of football.

However, this wasn’t exactly a plucky underdog story. It was clear long before Italy had arrived in England for the final four that Mancini was building something special. He had already successfully created a club spirit within the national team, and it’s worth remembering that his side were unbeaten in 27 games when the Euros began.

Italy would go on to break the international record for successive matches without defeat, and were widely regarded as one of the favourites to win the 2022 World Cup. However, the Azzurri didn’t even make it to Qatar. After two Jorginho penalty misses twice cost them victory over Switzerland in the qualifiers, Italy were stunned by North Macedonia in the play-offs.

Even still, Mancini’s resignation in the summer of 2023 – or perhaps more accurately, its timing – stunned Italian football.

Head coach of Italy Roberto Mancini

Shock exit

Mancini stepped down on August 13, 2023 – just nine days after the Italian Football Federation (FIGC) had granted him control of the nation’s Under-20s and U21s, so as to allow him to smooth the progression of players from under-age football to senior level.

“It’s a bit surprising,” Renzo Ulivieri, the president of Italy’s coaches association, told LaPresse. “Nobody expected it.” Mancini, who immediately took over as Saudi Arabia manager, pointed the finger of blame at FIGC president Gabriele Gravina.

“He could’ve kept me if he wanted to,” Mancini alleged. “But for a year he was trying to revolutionise my staff. I explained to him that in these months I needed to be given support and calm, but he didn’t do that and so I resigned.”

Mancini’s sudden exit left Italy in quite a bind, given their Euro 2024 qualification campaign was already under way. Finding a worthy replacement was not going to be easy. Luckily, Spalletti was willing to abandon his supposed sabbatical from football after sensationally parting company with Napoli at the end of their historic Scudetto win the season before.

In that sense, the FIGC could not have found a more qualified coach to succeed Mancini, and Spalletti promptly proved his worth by sneaking Italy into second spot in their qualifying group. The Azzurri finished level on points with Ukraine, but progressed thanks to their superior head-to-head record – and a seriously contentious penalty call in the final matchday draw with Sergiy Rebrov’s side in Leverkusen.

However, Spalletti’s attempts to build a “special team” in time for the Euros have been hindered not only by a lack of preparation, but also a lack of quality.

Chiellini Bonucci Italy

Old defensive guard gone

While Italy were widely lauded for an atypically adventurous approach at Euro 2020, which brought the best out of Federico Chiesa, their triumph was still founded on defensive excellence.

Leonardo Spinazzola was a revelation on the left-hand side, posing opponents all sorts of problems until picking up an injury against Belgium in the quarter-finals. Their attacking threat having been curbed by the Roma man’s absence, Italy leaned ever more heavily on veteran defensive duo Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci, both of whom were immense against Spain and England, while Gigi Donnarumma being named Player of the Tournament tells you everything you need to know about his importance to the team.

Unfortunately, Chiellini and Bonucci (the two remaining members of the famed ‘BBC’) are now retired, depriving Spalletti of a wealth of quality and experience. Worse still, their absences have only been compounded by a spate of injury-enforced withdrawals from the defensive department.

Francesco ACERBI-italy-20231117-euro 2024 qualifiers

Injury issues

Unsurprisingly for a country renewed for producing world-class defenders, Italy were well stocked in centre-backs ahead of the Euros. The situation looks very different now, though, with both Francesco Acerbi and Giorgio Scalvini having been forced to pull out of Spalletti’s squad.

While Scalvini has emerged as one of Italy’s most promising young defenders, it is Acerbi’s absence that will be more keenly felt. The Inter ace, who helped mark Erling Haaland out of last year’s Champions League final, was certain to start alongside his club-mate Alessandro Bastoni, whether Italy played with three or four at the back.

To make matters worse, Spurs wing-back Destiny Udogie has also been ruled out, meaning Spalletti can ill-afford anything to happen to Federico Dimarco, particularly as Spinazzola didn’t even make the preliminary roster, having struggled for form and fitness ever since Euro 2020.

Italy’s injury issues aren’t solely confined to defence, either. The once-brilliant Marco Verratti has gone into semi-retirement in Qatar, Nicolo Barella has yet to fully recover from a minor muscular problem, while Chiesa, the Azzurri’s most potent attacking weapon by some distance, is not the same thrilling talent we saw at Wembley three years ago. Playing under Massimiliano Allegri has obviously taken its toll on the Juventus winger, but so too have a succession of niggling injuries.

Chiesa’s decline – which Spalletti is hoping is not irreversible – is particularly problematic, given both Domenico Berardi and Nicolo Zaniolo will miss the Euros through injury, meaning the Azzurri once again look painfully short on attacking options.

Gianluca Scamacca Italy 2024

Perennial problem

Spalletti dropped Gianluca Scamacca for the March internationals. Now, the Atalanta striker is expected to start up front for Italy at the Euros. Obviously, a fine finish to the season has played a part in that dramatic turnaround, but it’s also illustrative of the dearth of top forwards available to Spalletti.

It’s nothing new, of course. Long gone are the days when Italy could take Christian Vieri, Alessandro Del Piero, Roberto Baggio, Filippo Inzaghi and Enrico Chiesa to the same tournament. They no longer even have a Ciro Immobile, who scored just twice at Euro 2020 but was still a prolific player at club level in Serie A.

As a result, the only real alternatives to Scamacca to lead the line in Germany are Mateo Retegui (five) and Giacomo Raspadori (seven), who scored 12 league goals between them this season.

Therefore, Spalletti desperately needs Scamacca to continue his hot streak – or someone to enjoy a Toto Schillaci-like explosion at a major tournament – if Italy are to have any chance of getting out of a group that also contains Spain and Croatia.

Sandro-Tonali

Too much to overcome?

Italy obviously have history when it comes to defying the odds. Adversity has so often brought the best out of them. Paolo Rossi returned from a two-year betting ban to fire the Azzurri to victory at the 1982 World Cup. The 2006 edition was won amid the bitter backdrop of Calciopoli.

The current squad have had to deal with a scandal of their own, with Nicolo Fagioli and Sandro Tonali both suspended as part of an investigation into illegal betting activity.

“I can’t understand why they (the authorities) decided to come and interview the players in the training camp and not perhaps at home in a more private and less traumatic moment for them,” Spalletti said. “It was certainly our most difficult moment, but it produced an important reaction from the group. It was a good thing that all this happened because it allowed [the players involved] to realise their mistakes and risks they run, and then get back on track.”

However, while Spalletti has been able to welcome Fagioli back into the group just weeks after the Juventus midfielder’s return to action, Tonali is still suspended, meaning Italy will be without a likely starter in Germany. It’s a loss that they really could have done without.

Spalletti is a genius coach. He proved that at Napoli and he has a proven track record when it comes to finding solutions where there appear to be none. His striker-less system at Roma elevated Francesco Totti’s game to a whole other level.

However, it’s just so hard to shake the feeling that this tournament has come just too soon for Spalletti. As Real Madid boss Carlo Ancelotti recently told La Repubblica, “More time is needed. I don’t see top-class players, except for maybe Donnarumma in goal.”

It’s a valid point. There might not be any “d*ckheads” in the Italy squad – but there aren’t any true superstars either. A successful title defence appears impossible…

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