Erik ten Hag struck a defiant tone when quizzed on his immediate future after Manchester United’s 2-1 victory over Manchester City in the FA Cup final. “Two trophies in two years is not bad. Three finals in two years is not bad,” he said. “If they don’t want me, then I will go somewhere else to win trophies because that is what I do.”
It was a strong message to INEOS chairman Sir Jim Ratcliffe, which could roughly be translated as: ‘sack me if you dare’. But at this point, Ten Hag is coming across as little more than a desperate salesman.
In the hit TV show Breaking Bad, when Walter White is conversing with Saul Goodman, the shady criminal defence attorney quips: “If you’re committed enough, you can make any story work. I once told a woman I was Kevin Costner, and it worked because I believed it.”
There is no doubting Ten Hag’s commitment to United, or that he truly believes he is the right man to get them back to the very top of the game. But one great performance doesn’t mean it’s working out for him at Old Trafford.
The 2023-24 campaign has been a complete disaster, and it’s vital that Ratcliffe doesn’t let Ten Hag off the hook amid the celebratory mood still surrounding the club after Saturday’s emotional scenes at Wembley.
Ten Hag’s false moment of redemption
City were overwhelming favourites to win the FA Cup final, having comfortably beaten their local rivals home and away in the Premier League. There were 31 points between the two sides by the end of the season as City won a record-breaking fourth successive title while United slumped to their worst-ever finish down in eighth.
But from the moment Alejandro Garnacho capitalised on a calamitous defensive mix-up to give his side an unlikely lead at Wembley, it felt like it would be Ten Hag’s day. Kobbie Mainoo doubled the Red Devils’ advantage before half-time after finishing off a magnificent, sweeping counter-attack, leaving City with a mountain to climb.
Pep Guardiola’s side bossed possession as usual, but United neutered their most dangerous trio as Erling Haaland, Kevin De Bruyne and Phil Foden all endured frustrating afternoons. Ten Hag set his team up perfectly and through a combination of discipline and courage, United held on for a remarkable victory, despite a late scare provided mainly by the individual brilliance of substitute Jeremy Doku.
It was an upset of monumental proportions that no one saw coming, and many have construed it as Ten Hag’s ultimate moment of redemption. But really, it just makes the rest of United’s miserable season even more inexcusable; how could they have done so badly when they are capable of playing to such a high level?
United are still in a mess
“When I took over we were in a mess,” Ten Hag told BBC Sport after the game. “The team is developing, the team is winning and the team plays to an identity. But you need a strong squad and the players to be available.”
United had a near full-strength squad available for the final, with Lisandro Martinez starting in the heart of defence alongside the departing Raphael Varane for the final time. Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho led the line, while Ten Hag was also able to call upon Rasmus Hojlund and Mason Mount from the bench, with the Dutchman delighted to see his team finally “playing to our identity”.
It’s true that injuries have hampered United over the past 12 months, and Ten Hag hasn’t missed an opportunity to point that out. But all the top clubs have had to deal with similar issues, including City, who had to cope without De Bruyne in the first half of the season and lost Haaland for the entire festive period.
The difference between United and their main rivals is they completely fell apart. There was no clear pattern of play or identity as they posted 14 Premier League losses while exiting the Champions League at the group stage, and so many players lacked fighting spirit.
The reality is: they are still in a mess, arguably an even worse one than when Ten Hag arrived in May 2022. And let’s not forget, United were incredibly lucky to be in the FA Cup final in the first place, having only been saved from a humiliating extra-time semi-final defeat to Coventry by a controversial VAR call after blowing a 3-0 lead.
Judgement cannot be trusted
Ten Hag has very rarely held any of his underperforming stars to account publicly, barring Jadon Sancho, while refusing to entertain any suggestion of a serious collective decline. Indeed, after an unconvincing 4-2 home win over rock-bottom Sheffield United in April, Ten Hag claimed United were making “huge progress”, despite the fact they’d failed to win any of their previous four Premier League games.
There is a difference between positivity and ignorance. Ten Hag’s endless list of excuses has effectively given his players licence to continue slacking off, safe in the knowledge that there will be no real consequences.
Marcus Rashford finished the season with eight goals to his name in all competitions, 22 fewer than he managed in 2022-23, but still started 35 games. Casemiro was a fixture in centre-midfield again too, despite clearly not being up to the required standard physically, while the likes of Varane, Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Victor Lindelof have all been caught out consistently at the back.
INEOS would be sending completely the wrong message by granting Ten Hag a stay of execution based on a one-off game that saw United play to their maximum for the first time in well over a year. A major squad overhaul will take place in the summer transfer window, but the former Ajax boss doesn’t deserve to oversee it, because he’s enabled a culture of mediocrity for too long and his judgment cannot be trusted.
Unforgivable recruitment record
Too many people also seem to have forgotten the fact Ten Hag has spent £411 million ($500m) in the transfer market since joining United, making a total of ten permanent signings. Aside from Martinez, who has been generally very impressive when fully fit, all of them have have failed to live up to expectations at Old Trafford.
Antony stands out as the worst of the bunch, with the £85m ($108m) winger’s ineptitude matched only by his baffling arrogance, but Casemiro and Mason Mount are not far behind. Resources were also wasted on loan deals for Wout Weghorst, Sofyan Amrabat and Sergio Reguilon, all of whom fell well short of the minimum level of quality required for a United player.
The jury is still out on Andre Onana, too, as the former Inter goalkeeper’s debut season in Manchester has been littered with mistakes, including the handling error that gave City a brief glimmer of hope in the FA Cup showpiece. Arsenal and Liverpool managed to cut the gap to City thanks to some smart recruitment last summer, but United regressed as a result of their chaotic approach, and that’s on Ten Hag.
The problem is: support is growing for the embattled coach. It has been reported that Ten Hag has ‘influential backers’ behind the scenes, and a lot of fans are pointing to the fact he has now won more trophies in two years than Mikel Arteta has won at Arsenal in five.
Ratcliffe risks becoming a villain by axing Ten Hag after perhaps the biggest victory of the post-Sir Alex Ferguson era, but he has to ignore the outside noise; keeping the 54-year-old would set a far worse precedent.
Lasting legacy
Ten Hag does, however, deserve some credit for sticking to United’s core values when it comes to the development of youth. Teenage duo Garnacho and Mainoo have become household names on his watch, and 21-year-old Danish frontman Hojlund has shown plenty of promise since his £75m ($96m) transfer from Atalanta.
United can still look towards a brighter future thanks to the emergence of those three youngsters, who all have the potential to reach the very top if they receive the right guidance. Ten Hag has given them that to this point, which will be his lasting legacy should he indeed be given his marching orders in the coming days.
Elsewhere, Harry Maguire owes Ten Hag a debt of gratitude for relieving him of the weight that comes with being United captain. The England international has probably been the Red Devils’ most consistent performer after Fernandes this term, and that’s because he’s gone back to basics and played without pressure for the first time since his £80m ($102m) switch from Leicester City in 2019.
And then there’s Portuguese full-back Diogo Dalot, who has run himself into the ground for the United cause while regularly swapping flanks to cover for his injured team-mates. Dalot never looked capable of reaching those heights under Jose Mourinho and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.
And unlike his predecessors, Ten Hag now has the chance to leave with his held held high, at a time when the spotlight is being shone on all the good things he has done at Old Trafford.
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Best time to walk away
Ten Hag has made Manchester red again, and for that alone will always enjoy a place in the hearts of United supporters. In the space of just 90 minutes, he managed to win back his dignity after what has been statistically one of the most disappointing seasons in the club’s entire history, and there will never be a better time for him to walk away.
It has been reported that Ipswich boss Kieran McKenna is in the frame to replace Ten Hag, along with departing Bayern coach Thomas Tuchel, while United have even held talks with the representatives of Brentford’s Thomas Frank and Mauricio Pochettino – who left Chelsea by mutual consent last week. INEOS are conducting a full review of the season before making a final decision on Ten Hag, but it would be a huge surprise if they retained his services.
The Red Devils have to start 2024-25 with a proper clean slate. Ten Hag has laid down some foundations with the younger players, but someone else needs to handle the next stage of their development, and pick out the new recruits to compliment them in the summer market.
In truth, no other top club in Europe would have stuck with Ten Hag for so long. It would have been fair to dismiss him in early December, when United had already fallen off the top-four pace and crashed out of the Champions League and Carabao Cup.
The FA Cup might seem like a reward for their patience, but all it’s really done is paper over the cracks. After a chaotic two years that has seen United hit unthinkable new lows, it’s obvious that Ten Hag doesn’t fit Ratcliffe’s “best-in-class policy”, and prolonging an unhappy marriage would only cause more damage.
